Bitcoin's ups and downs in 2025. The alt season never happened. What to expect from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple in the future? Results of 2025 and forecasts for 2026
Bitcoin records and crashes, new laws, and cybersecurity: what was 2025 like for crypto?
2025 was a turning point for the crypto industry: Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, and regulations intensified worldwide.
Bitcoin's record price peaks and crashes
January 2025: Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark amid political optimism. Expectations of favorable regulatory policies in the US under President Donald Trump pushed BTC to ATH in the $103,000–$109,000 range.
April 2025: Collapse due to tariff shock. The unexpected announcement of tariffs on Chinese goods triggered a 4% drop in BTC. The first major decline of the year showed a growing correlation with global stocks.
October 2025: Euphoria gives way to a “great shake-up.” On October 6, Bitcoin updated its ATH at $126,000. The rally, fueled by the success of ETFs, economic stability, and the growth of tech stocks, briefly pushed BTC's market capitalization above $2.3 trillion. However, on October 10, the market crashed, with liquidations reaching a record $19 billion. The shock of Trump's proposed tariffs (100%) on Chinese imports caused BTC to plummet to the mid-$80,000 range, wiping more than $1 trillion off the market. This was the largest one-day liquidation in crypto history.
December 2025: BTC lost ~30% of its October ATH, falling to ~$83–$86k. Investors are moving away from risky assets amid uncertainty over Fed rates, inflation, and the revaluation of AI stocks.
The alt season never started
Unlike in 2021, when almost all altcoins grew following Bitcoin, the market in 2025 developed sporadically. Investors' main focus remained on BTC, with other tokens and coins growing only in specific sectors.
From May to August, as well as in November, the prices of some altcoins rose by 50%–300% at one point. But these were more like local spikes than a mass market trend. This is confirmed by the Altcoin Season Index: it rarely rose above 50–60 points, and in December, it fell to about 17. Ethereum reached a new high of $4,955 in 2025, but then went into a correction.
What supported altcoins?
- ETFs. In 2025, the first spot ETFs on XRP and DOGE appeared, and earlier, an ETF on Solana was approved, which attracted billions of dollars. This increased interest from large investors.
- Technological development. Ethereum reduced fees for second-layer solutions, while Solana focused on scalability and AI integration. Layer-2 networks continued to grow.
- AI — the main driver of growth. Projects related to artificial intelligence were the year's hottest trend. AI sector tokens showed growth of +200%–500% at their peak, and the total capitalization of the segment reached $24–$27 billion.
- DeFi and tokenization of real assets. The volume of funds in DeFi remained stable, while the interest of large investors shifted towards the tokenization of traditional assets and liquid staking.
- Memecoins. Tokens based on memes skyrocketed again — sometimes by hundreds and thousands of percent, especially in the Solana ecosystem. The TRUMP memecoin became the subject of political hype. However, the sharp growth was quickly followed by crashes.
Regulation
MiCA. New crypto regulations in the European Union came into force in early 2025. This ensured equal regulation for all EU countries and created uniform rules for the crypto market.
GENIUS Act. The law, signed on July 18, 2025, introduced federal rules for stablecoins in the US for the first time. It required each "stable token" to be backed by an asset worth $1 and to conduct monthly audits.
Regulation of cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. In September 2025, parliament approved bill No. 10225-d in the first reading, aimed at legalizing and regulating the virtual asset market. The document was expected to be adopted by the end of 2025, but due to the large number of amendments (more than 2,500), the deadline was moved to 2026.
Cybersecurity and hacks
Annual total: $3.4 billion stolen in crypto. North Korea (the DPRK group) is responsible for $2.02 billion, including the historic $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Over the year, there were 158,000 incidents of personal crypto wallets being compromised, with users suffering $713 million in losses.
Bitcoin forecast for 2026
According to analysts, 2026 will be a period of market calm after the sharp jumps of 2025. The main focus is on institutional investments, regulation, and technology development.
Expert opinions:
- Bitwise (provider of crypto index funds and ETFs): Bitcoin will renew its historic high and rise above $126,000. Volatility will decrease as BTC becomes more of a "mature" asset thanks to ETFs and institutional investors.
- Arthur Hayes (crypto expert, co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange): BTC could quickly return to $124,000 and rise to $200,000 in 2026 amid a weakening dollar and the Fed's stimulus policy.
- Grayscale (investment platform): In a classic scenario, the market could be bearish in 2026, but the adoption of crypto in the public sector and business will keep the price above $80,000.
- Galaxy Digital (investment company): 2026 will be volatile, but new highs are possible. The forecast is up to $250,000 by the end of 2027.
- JPMorgan (the world's largest bank): The price of BTC could reach $170,000. The level of around $94,000 is considered the "bottom," below which Bitcoin will hardly fall for a long time, because at this price, mining becomes unprofitable.
The average market forecast is $92,000–$200,000. The probability of growth to $200,000 by mid-2026 is estimated at approximately 50%. In a negative scenario, analysts predict a drop to $38,000–$50,000 in mid-2026, followed by new growth.
Altcoin forecasts for 2026
At the beginning of 2026, BTC dominance may remain at 60%, so the bulk of capital will remain in the first cryptocurrency. However, from July to December, analysts expect active growth in altcoins; this will not be a massive pump, but growth in individual projects with real utility, technology, and demand, rather than just big names.
When and which altcoins are likely to grow?
- AI tokens — projected growth of 200%–500%. Bittensor (TAO), Fetch.ai (ASI), and Render (RNDR) tokens have high potential.
- DeFi — the volume of funds in the sector may exceed $200 billion.
- RWA — the tokenization of real assets, such as real estate, bonds, and intellectual property, will be one of the main drivers of the year.
- Ethereum — network scaling could increase throughput by up to 10 times, which will push the cryptocurrency price up.
The main beneficiaries of altcoins are Ethereum (maximum $5,700, sideways $2,200–$4,300) and Solana (maximum $390, sideways $252). According to Bitwise and Galaxy, they will take the lion's share of capital. At the same time, XRP will remain on the list of institutional favorites. If successfully implemented, the price could rise to $3.83–$4.53, and if support is lost, it could fall to $0.90–$1.20.
According to experts' forecasts, the cryptocurrency market capitalization could reach $5 trillion in 2026.
Electronic money: results of 2025 and plans for 2026
Throughout 2025, key e-wallet providers — Wise, Payoneer, Payeer, Revolut, PayPal, Capitalist, and Volet — continued to provide international transfers for individuals and businesses both in Ukraine and worldwide. Most of the news during the year was related to Revolut and PayPal.
Revolut officially entered the Ukrainian market in February 2025, opening access to the neobank for users from Ukraine. However, in April, the company suspended the registration of new customers due to the lack of an NBU license. Revolut has announced its intention to return after regulatory issues have been resolved, but no specific dates have been announced yet.
In 2025, PayPal focused on strengthening the position of its stablecoin, PYUSD. The company expanded the use of the token in financing artificial intelligence infrastructure through the USD.AI project. Additionally, PayPal has applied to create its own bank, PayPal Bank, which plans to lend to small businesses and offer interest-bearing savings accounts in the US market.
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